XRP: Volume Gap Keeps Double-Bottom Thesis Unconfirmed Below $1.29 Neckline

XRP’s price structure since late May shows two lows close enough to read as a double bottom on the chart, but the volume profile underneath tells a more cautious story. The pattern’s first trough printed at $1.05 on June 5 on 281.77 million XRP traded, followed by 141.36 million XRP the next session. A recovery to $1.29 by June 15 marked the neckline before sellers pushed price to a marginal new low of $1.0092 on June 26.

Volume divergence undercuts the reversal setup

The second leg down traded on just 145 million XRP — a lighter print than the June 5-6 spike despite the lower low, a textbook bearish-divergence signature. Since July 1, XRP has broken out of the $1.02-$1.07 range with three straight up days, reaching $1.1385. Breakout-day volume came in at 87.97 million XRP, up from 66 million the prior session, and has held above 84 million since.

That’s still roughly 30% of the June 5 peak turnover. For traders treating this as a confirmed reversal, the participation gap is the key red flag: price is moving without the volume base that typically accompanies a genuine trend shift.

On-chain flows tell a different story than spot volume

Flow data sits in tension with the thin tape. XRP spot ETFs have posted consecutive weeks of net inflows totaling approximately $1.47 billion. Exchange outflows have jumped roughly 200%, rising from 40.7 million XRP on June 22 to around 123 million XRP more recently — consistent with holders moving supply into custody or cold storage rather than trading it.

That supply-side tightening hasn’t yet shown up as matching price momentum, leaving a disconnect between accumulation signals on-chain and the volume backing the spot move.

The resistance stack between here and $1.29

Before any test of the neckline, XRP has to clear several layers of overhead supply. The 44-day moving average sits at $1.17, right above spot, with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at roughly $1.18 stacked just behind it. Holder-distribution data shows about 22.8 million XRP concentrated between $1.18 and $1.19, plus another 27.4 million XRP between $1.21 and $1.22 — both bands likely to supply sellers as price approaches.

A confirmed daily close above the $1.28-$1.29 neckline would open a measured-move target near $1.57, derived from adding the pattern’s $0.28 depth to the breakout level. That target lines up with the May 14 high of $1.5496, the prior cap that preceded the multi-month decline into the current range.

Read more: XRP Tests Decade-Old Gaussian Support Near $0.86 as Bearish Candles Persist

Sources

• thecryptobasic.com