XRP Monthly RSI Breaks 40.59, Piercing Support That Held in 2019 and 2022 Cycles

XRP’s monthly relative strength index printed 40.59 in June, breaking below a support band that has held through every prior cycle low since 2019, according to a market outlook from analyst EGRAG Crypto published on X on July 5. The oscillator has since recovered to 42.5, a move EGRAG frames not as a fresh breakdown but as the terminal leg of a momentum reset that historically precedes a shift toward an uptrend.

The reading matters because the zone that just failed — roughly 43.66 to 44.42 — is the same range where the monthly RSI bottomed in both of XRP’s two prior major cycles, and it did so via a repeatable three-touch structure rather than a single spike low.

A Repeating 1-2-3 Bottom, Now Broken to the Downside

In the first cycle, the monthly RSI touched 44.25 in December 2019, retested at 43.75 in March 2020, and completed the pattern at 44.01 in June 2020. In the second cycle, the sequence repeated at 43.90 in June 2022, 43.95 in August 2022, and 44.42 in December 2022 — each instance forming a 1-2-3 bottoming structure before the oscillator turned higher on a multi-year basis.

This time the RSI did not hold the range; it dropped through it to 40.59, a level EGRAG says XRP’s monthly oscillator has never visited before. Rather than reading that as a structural failure, he classifies the overshoot as a “manipulation” leg within an Accumulation-Manipulation-Distribution (AMD) framework applied to the oscillator itself rather than to price.

Levels That Would Confirm the Momentum Shift

EGRAG lays out a three-step confirmation path for traders tracking macro momentum on XRP. A recovery above 43.66 would mark the first sign of improving momentum and effectively reclaim the old support-turned-resistance zone. A push through 46.50 would strengthen the bullish case further.

The analyst identifies a monthly close above 50 as the decisive confirmation — the point at which the macro RSI trend would be considered to have flipped from bearish to bullish. With the oscillator currently at 42.5, XRP sits below all three thresholds, meaning the current bounce from 40.59 has not yet cleared the first checkpoint.

Why the Monthly Timeframe Carries Weight

Monthly RSI readings smooth out short-term volatility and are typically used by position traders to gauge multi-quarter momentum rather than entries. A rising oscillator on this timeframe, particularly after an undercut of historical support, is the pattern EGRAG points to as precedent for the two prior instances that preceded extended uptrends in XRP.

For traders positioning around this thesis, the 43.66 and 46.50 levels function as intermediate checkpoints, while a monthly close above 50 remains the threshold EGRAG treats as full confirmation that XRP’s macro momentum has turned. Until that print occurs, the current reading of 42.5 leaves the setup unconfirmed on the analyst’s own framework.

Read more: XRP Weekly MA Death Cross Nears as On-Chain Support Clusters at $0.80-$0.90