XRP Grinds $1.08-$1.15 for Sixth Week as CLARITY Act Odds Slip to 42%
XRP holds a six-week range as Bitcoin stalls near $64K, Senate timeline slips, and Polymarket odds on CLARITY Act passage fall to 42%.
XRP closed out another week almost exactly where it started, extending a range-bound structure that has now held for six straight weeks between roughly $1.08 and $1.15. The token opened near $1.09, dipped to a weekly low around $1.08, rallied to approximately $1.16, then faded back to $1.09 — a round trip that left directional traders with little to work with but reinforced the range as the dominant market structure heading into the coming week.
Six Weeks of Range-Bound Trading
Buyers have repeatedly defended the $1.08 zone over the past month and a half, while sellers have capped every attempt to clear $1.15. That two-sided defense has compressed volatility, and an ascending trendline now sits beneath price action, currently acting as intraday support. A hold above that trendline keeps a retest of $1.20 in play, with a stronger breakout opening room toward $1.20-$1.30.
A break below the trendline flips the setup. Chart structure points to $1.008 as the first support on a breakdown, with $0.90 as the next major level if selling extends. That lower target becomes more likely if Bitcoin loses $60,000 or regulatory headlines turn negative.
CLARITY Act Odds Fall to 42% as Senate Timeline Slips
Regulatory positioning remains the bigger swing factor for XRP than any single technical level. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had previously described the CLARITY Act — which would classify XRP as a digital commodity — as being on the “1 yard line” ahead of the August Senate recess. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has since signaled the bill will likely miss that window.
Polymarket odds on the bill passing this year have fallen to approximately 42%, tracking XRP’s consolidation near $1.10. A partisan dispute over ethics provisions tied to President Donald Trump remains an unresolved sticking point, and fresh remarks from lawmakers including Chuck Schumer or Cynthia Lummis could move sentiment sharply in either direction during the coming week, independent of any formal vote.
Bitcoin Correlation and ETF Flow Signal
Bitcoin’s own struggle at resistance is compounding the uncertainty. BTC recently failed to clear $66,000 and pulled back toward $64,000; a break below $60,000 would likely drag XRP toward the $1.00 support zone. Conversely, a period of sideways BTC trading has historically rotated liquidity into large-cap altcoins, which could give XRP room to recover without needing a Bitcoin rally.
Spot XRP ETF flows add a second institutional data point to watch. Whale accumulation was strong earlier in the summer, but recent spot ETF outflows have added pressure to price. Upcoming fund flow data will show whether institutional demand is stabilizing or whether the outflow trend is deepening — a read that traders will likely weigh alongside the trendline test and any fresh CLARITY Act headlines.
Read more: CLARITY Act Odds Sit at 43-60% Pre-Recess, Desk Flags Rumor-Sell-News Setup