XRP/BTC golden cross fires as MVRV bands mark 12-year low despite $1.14 bounce
XRP rallied 8% into July 4 as XRP/BTC printed a 50/200 golden cross, even as MVRV data shows the deepest holder losses in 12+ years.
XRP’s exchange rate against Bitcoin flipped bullish on structure even as its own holder base sits on some of the steepest unrealized losses in the asset’s 12-plus-year trading history. On the 2-hour XRP/BTC chart, the 50-period moving average crossed above the 200-period moving average on July 4, marking a golden cross that reversed a downtrend running since mid-June.
Price action: four straight up days off a $1.02 base
XRP bottomed at $1.02 on July 1 after a multi-day chop between $1.00 and $1.07, itself a retracement from a 19-month low of $1.01 hit on June 25. From that base, price has now closed higher for four consecutive sessions, reaching $1.14 by the July 4 print — a gain of more than 8% into the holiday weekend, per data cited by on-chain analytics firm Santiment.
Santiment flagged that most major cryptocurrencies, XRP included, traded higher on July 4, a reversal from weeks characterized by elevated fear, ETF outflows, whale-side hesitation and generally soft risk appetite. The firm’s read is that buyers are stepping in near support rather than continuing to sit out, a shift visible in both spot price and derivatives-adjacent sentiment gauges.
MVRV bands flag the weakest average returns on record
Beneath the bounce, profitability metrics remain stretched. Santiment’s data puts XRP’s 30-day MVRV ratio at roughly -45% and the 365-day MVRV at approximately -47%, meaning both short- and long-term cohorts are holding positions materially underwater on average.
Per Santiment, this combination represents the lowest average return level XRP has posted across its entire trading history — a span exceeding 12 years. Historically, MVRV troughs of this depth have functioned as contrarian entry zones, which is the framing some traders are now applying to the current setup.
Network growth: wallet creation hits a three-month high
On-chain activity has decoupled from spot price weakness. The XRP Ledger logged 4,941 new wallets in a single day this week — the strongest daily wallet-creation figure the network has recorded in over three months, according to the referenced on-chain data.
The $1.00–$1.05 band is being treated by analysts as the likely dip-buying zone underpinning that inflow, coinciding with a reported three-month high in FOMO-related sentiment readings. Taken together, fresh wallet formation, a golden cross on the XRP/BTC pair, and record-low MVRV bands point to accumulation dynamics building beneath a spot price that has, so far, only recovered to the $1.10–$1.15 range.
Read more: XRP Jumps 5% to $1.16 as Altcoin Rally Meets CLARITY Act Optimism
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