XRP/BTC Tests 4-Year Channel as ETF Inflows Hit an Eighth Straight Week

XRP is up roughly 8% on the week to trade near $1.13, after a July 4 surge of 5.3% pushed the token to $1.18 and briefly lifted its market capitalization past USDC to roughly $73 billion, making it the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by that metric, according to CaptainAltcoin. The move coincides with a wider market bid — Bitcoin back above $63,000 and Ethereum trading above $1,800 — but the data point traders are watching is the XRP/BTC ratio, not the dollar chart.

The XRP/BTC descending channel

Analyst Celal Kucuker, who has covered XRP for years, flagged a monthly XRP/BTC chart on Bitstamp showing a red descending channel that has contained the pair’s price action since its 2021 peak near 0.00003200 BTC. Every rally attempt since has been rejected at the upper boundary, with lower highs and lower lows compressing the range, per CaptainAltcoin.

Kucuker’s chart is currently testing that upper boundary again, with an annotated 1,043.79% projection attached to a potential breakout. In his own words: “The XRP/BTC chart is approaching a major moment. The red descending channel is close to breaking. When that breakout happens, I expect Ripple to outperform Bitcoin by 10x from here. By the time BTC is printing new ATH, XRP will likely already be trading above $12. Save this tweet. Come back to it later.”

Kucuker has previously projected XRP could reach $10 between December 2026 and February 2027. The new call ties that dollar target explicitly to relative performance against Bitcoin, arguing the multi-year downtrend on the ratio chart is running out of momentum as volume in the decline has thinned — a pattern that often precedes a reversal, though no breakout has been confirmed yet.

ETF flows: eighth consecutive positive week

The technical setup is running alongside improving flow data. XRP spot ETFs logged $6.55 million in net inflows on July 2, extending a streak of positive weekly flows to eight, according to CaptainAltcoin. June alone brought in $59.46 million, and July has opened with $4.68 million month-to-date.

Cumulative XRP ETF inflows now stand at $1.49 billion, up from $1.43 billion on June 1, with assets under management averaging roughly $988 million. The consistency of the weekly print — eight straight weeks without a net outflow — is the more notable data point for positioning than any single day’s figure.

CLARITY Act odds tick up

The inflow streak is developing as odds on the U.S. CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 rose to 42% on Polymarket, up from below 40% just days earlier, per CaptainAltcoin’s reporting. A market structure bill that clarifies XRP’s regulatory status relative to peers has been cited as a supporting factor for the recent flow trend, though the prediction-market probability remains below even odds.

Levels to watch

On the dollar chart, $1.18 is the level to reclaim to confirm the recovery, with resistance stacked at $1.20 and $1.30 above that. A failure to hold the current bid would likely see XRP settle back into a $1.05–$1.20 range, where ETF demand provides a floor but broader market caution caps upside. The XRP/BTC ratio chart remains the variable to track for confirmation of Kucuker’s outperformance thesis — the channel breakout he describes has not yet occurred.

Read more: Fear & Greed Jumps to 28 as Funding Rates Spike 42%, XRP ETF Flows Hit Week Eight