A Year On: Bitcoin Correlation to Equities Persists as Tariff Shock Fails to Confirm Gold-Like Hedge Flows

The rollout of sweeping U.S. tariffs in April 2025 delivered a stark reminder that Bitcoin does not always behave like the uncorrelated safe haven its supporters describe. When President Donald Trump unveiled his so-called “Liberation Day” trade policy, both equities and crypto markets sold off in tandem, with Bitcoin sliding below $82,000 as stocks lost trillions in value within days, according to Crypto Briefing.

The episode, revisited in a recent Crypto Briefing analysis, has become a reference point for investors questioning whether Bitcoin truly functions as a diversification tool during periods of macroeconomic stress.

A sweeping tariff regime shakes global markets

On April 2, 2025, Trump announced a 10{d19616a33d455f7215be86882b84de16bc0d6d703bafb84e8d0ba56683c22428} baseline tariff on nearly all imports into the United States, layered with steeper reciprocal duties targeting dozens of trading partners. China bore the brunt of the policy, with tariffs on Chinese goods eventually climbing to 125{d19616a33d455f7215be86882b84de16bc0d6d703bafb84e8d0ba56683c22428}, Crypto Briefing reported.

The announcement triggered an immediate selloff across major stock indices, which plunged more than 10{d19616a33d455f7215be86882b84de16bc0d6d703bafb84e8d0ba56683c22428} in the days that followed. Bitcoin, often marketed by advocates as a hedge against exactly this type of macro shock, fell in step with equities rather than decoupling from them, dropping below $82,000.

Rather than rotating into Bitcoin as a store of value during the turmoil, investors moved toward cash and Treasuries, according to the report, underscoring how digital assets traded as risk-on instruments rather than safe-haven hedges during the panic.

The 90-day pause and the market’s whiplash rebound

The turmoil eased somewhat on April 9, when Trump announced a 90-day pause on most of the elevated reciprocal tariffs, though China was explicitly excluded and its 125{d19616a33d455f7215be86882b84de16bc0d6d703bafb84e8d0ba56683c22428} rate remained in place. The S&P 500 responded with a 9.52{d19616a33d455f7215be86882b84de16bc0d6d703bafb84e8d0ba56683c22428} single-session surge, its largest daily gain since 2008, Crypto Briefing noted.

Crypto markets rebounded as well, but the pattern reinforced rather than challenged the correlation thesis: Bitcoin traded as a leveraged proxy for macro sentiment, with every headline about tariff escalation or negotiation directly swinging its price. Subsequent adjustments to the tariff regime, along with related court rulings, continued to inject volatility into both stock and crypto markets for months afterward.

Real economic costs and what it means for crypto investors

Beyond market volatility, the tariff regime carried tangible economic costs. Roughly 90,000 manufacturing jobs were reportedly lost in the year following Liberation Day, while consumer prices trended persistently higher as import costs filtered through supply chains, according to Crypto Briefing.

For crypto investors, the key takeaway concerns portfolio construction. If Bitcoin moves in the same direction as equities during periods of acute stress, it fails to deliver the diversification benefit that many allocators have assumed when adding it to traditional portfolios.

The episode does not necessarily invalidate longer-term arguments for Bitcoin as a store of value, but it does highlight how, in moments of acute macro panic, digital assets can trade less like digital gold and more like a high-beta equity proxy.

Read more: Fed Rate Hold Odds Hit 82{d19616a33d455f7215be86882b84de16bc0d6d703bafb84e8d0ba56683c22428} for July, Adding Pressure on Crypto Markets