Robinhood’s $156M Event-Contract Line Outgrows Crypto 10x as Crypto Take Falls 38%
Robinhood posted record $1.31B Q2 revenue as prediction-market fees overtook crypto trading, which slid 38% YoY to $100M.
Robinhood’s crypto trading desk shrank in Q2 while its prediction-market line went vertical — a revenue mix shift that shows where the company’s growth engine is actually sitting now. The brokerage posted record quarterly revenue of $1.31 billion, up 32% year-over-year and ahead of Wall Street’s $1.26 billion estimate, in results reported Wednesday.
Net income landed at $573 million, or $0.62 per share, versus $386 million in the year-ago period. The headline beat masks a sharp internal rotation: crypto revenue fell 38% year-over-year to $100 million, even as event contracts — Robinhood’s prediction-market bets on real-world outcomes — surged more than 10x to $156 million.
Prediction markets now outrun crypto on Robinhood’s books
Event contracts are now Robinhood’s fastest-growing revenue line, and the $156 million figure puts prediction-market fees comfortably ahead of the $100 million booked from crypto trading in the same quarter. A year ago, that ordering would have been unthinkable for a firm that built much of its retail-trading brand on crypto access.
For traders watching Robinhood as a proxy for retail risk appetite, the split matters. A 38% year-over-year drop in crypto revenue signals thinner volumes and fee compression on the spot side, consistent with the broader pullback in retail crypto trading activity seen across venues this year. Event contracts stepping into that gap suggests retail dollars are migrating toward binary, outcome-based products rather than leaving the platform altogether.
Robinhood Chain keeps expanding regardless
Despite the crypto-revenue decline, Robinhood kept building out its on-chain infrastructure. The company continued expanding Robinhood Chain during the quarter, adding tokenized stocks and decentralized lending functionality, and flagged plans for new international crypto offerings.
That divergence — falling crypto trading revenue alongside continued Chain build-out — points to a strategic bet that tokenized equities and lending rails will eventually generate fee income independent of spot crypto trading cycles. It also lines up with recent on-chain data showing Robinhood Chain’s tokenized-stock volume still leaning heavily on memecoin pairs rather than blue-chip tokenized equities, a signal that the product is early in finding sustainable liquidity.
Read more: Robinhood Chain’s $29.7M Daily Tokenized-Stock Volume Leans on Memecoin Pairs
What the mix shift means for positioning
For analysts modeling Robinhood as a crypto-exposure name, the Q2 print is a reminder that the stock’s fortunes are increasingly decoupled from crypto trading volumes. Event-contract revenue growing 10x while crypto revenue contracted by more than a third means the two lines are now moving in opposite directions inside the same earnings report.
Whether that trend persists into Q3 will depend on whether prediction-market volumes hold up outside of major catalyst events, and whether Robinhood Chain’s tokenized-stock and lending products can attract volume beyond memecoin pairs. Either way, the $1.31 billion top line confirms Robinhood is no longer leaning on crypto trading as its primary growth lever.