BTC Longs Hold 61.7% of OI as JPMorgan Reframes the Structural Bear Case

Bitcoin’s derivatives book is skewed long even as the technical trend reads bearish, with open interest split 61.7% long versus 38.3% short, according to data cited by Coinotag. The funding rate sits at +0.0055%, meaning long holders are paying shorts to keep positions open — a classic signature of crowded bullish positioning against a chart that isn’t confirming it.

Price and technical structure

BTC traded near $62,986 on Binance’s BTC/USDT pair at the time of the report, up 2.20% over 24 hours, with the pair ranging between $61,595.75 and $63,283.26 on volume of $15.11 billion. The daily print came in at $63,028.06, up 1.18%, though the underlying technical trend was flagged as bearish despite the gain.

The pivot point stands at $62,672.20. Resistance is stacked at $63,704.35, $65,251.91 and $67,369.22, while support sits at $61,921.68, $60,655.87 and $57,800.19. The 14-day RSI reads 49.3 — a neutral zone that doesn’t force a directional resolution on its own.

A clean break above $63,704.35 opens the path toward $65,251.91 and $67,369.22. A breakdown through $61,921.68 shifts focus to $60,655.87 and, below that, $57,800.19. With longs holding the majority of open interest and funding still favoring shorts, the setup leaves BTC technically balanced but positionally crowded just under the first resistance band.

JPMorgan’s structural risk framing

Separately, JPMorgan has identified what it considers Bitcoin’s principal structural risk — and it isn’t corporate treasury accumulation of the kind popularized by companies holding BTC on balance sheet, per the Coinotag report. The bank instead points to enterprise and institutional blockchain deployments that bypass public chains and their native tokens entirely.

That framing moves the bear case away from the familiar scenario of a large treasury holder unwinding a leveraged position and triggering forced selling. The concern JPMorgan raises instead is structural: banks, payment networks and enterprises could build out blockchain infrastructure in permissioned or private forms that never touch public settlement layers, denying assets like BTC the transactional demand that underpins their valuation case.

For traders, the distinction reframes what to monitor beyond spot flows and funding — institutional chain-architecture decisions now sit alongside price and positioning data as a variable in the long-term demand thesis for BTC and other Layer-1 tokens.

Read more: BTC’s $63.5K Line Decides a $1.4B Deribit Expiry as 10Y Yield Nears 4.6%

Sources

• coinotag.com