ETH Risks First 3-Quarter Losing Streak as BlackRock Sells, Bitmine Buys

Ethereum is trading near $1,577 and sits on track for a run of losses it has never recorded before: three consecutive negative quarters. Quarterly return data from CoinGlass shows ETH closed Q4 2025 in the red and has stayed negative through Q1 and Q2 2026, meaning a losing Q3 close would mark an unprecedented streak for the asset.

The setup is complicated by a visible split in institutional positioning. On-chain data from Arkham Intelligence shows BlackRock has moved additional BTC and ETH to Coinbase Prime and has sold ETH for seven straight trading days, with its last ETH purchase dated roughly two weeks ago. Over the same window, Tom Lee’s Bitmine has been accumulating, adding 27,084 ETH worth about $42.5 million to bring its total holdings to 5.7 million ETH — approximately 4.72% of Ethereum’s circulating supply.

What the price structure is showing

ETH is struggling to reclaim $1,600 after its latest drawdown, with the Relative Strength Index reading weak, per TradingView data, indicating buyers have not regained control of near-term momentum. Chaikin Money Flow has ticked slightly positive, however, suggesting capital is still entering the market even as spot price action stays bearish.

That divergence between a soft RSI and a positive CMF reading is the key technical tension for traders watching for a Q3 reversal. Historically, ETH has posted sharp corrections but tended to recover within one or two quarters; a third straight red quarter would break that pattern and could reset how positioning models treat Ethereum’s drawdown risk relative to Bitcoin.

Two large books, two directions

The BlackRock outflows to Coinbase Prime and the seven-day sell streak stand in direct contrast to Bitmine’s continued accumulation, and the two flows are effectively offsetting each other in the order book. BlackRock’s selling adds supply pressure, while Bitmine’s buying — now representing nearly 5% of total ETH supply held by a single treasury — keeps the market from trading in a purely one-directional pattern.

For traders, the $1,600 level is the line to watch: reclaiming and holding it would be the first technical signal that buyers are stepping back in ahead of quarter-end. Until that happens, the quarterly return chart — not any single wallet flow — remains the dominant signal shaping sentiment around Ethereum’s next move.

Read more: ETH Funding Flips Negative at $1,500 as Staking Inflows Defy Bearish Bets