ETH Exchange Inflows Turn Positive as Open Interest Craters 67% From $33.9B Peak

Ethereum’s exchange net position change turned positive on July 5 for the first time since mid-May, according to Glassnode data cited by AMBCrypto, a signal that typically precedes selling pressure even as ETH posted an 11.7% weekly gain. The shift comes as open interest has collapsed 67% from its October 2025 record of $33.9 billion to just $11.2 billion, per CryptoQuant figures flagged by analyst Darkfost, and as short liquidations have hit $314.5 million in July alone.

ETH slid below $1,800 after Bitcoin was rejected near $63,000 and failed to clear the $64,000 local supply zone, dragging altcoin sentiment down with it. The exchange inflow data suggests holders who had been sitting on assets off-exchange since May are now repositioning toward venues where selling can be executed.

Open interest halved, short squeeze unwinding

The drop from $33.9 billion to $11.2 billion in ETH open interest marks one of the sharpest deleveraging events of the current cycle, according to CryptoQuant data referenced in the AMBCrypto report. A liquidation volume bubble map showed a spike in long liquidations toward the end of June that rivaled the size of the October long-liquidation event, indicating leveraged bulls were flushed out before the recent bounce.

The rally itself appears to have been fueled partly by a short squeeze rather than fresh conviction buying. The $314.5 million in short liquidations recorded so far in July shows that traders positioned for further downside were forced to cover as price bounced toward $1,800, a dynamic that can produce sharp but shallow relief rallies rather than sustained trend reversals.

Coinbase premium and accumulation ratio stay bearish

The Coinbase Premium Index has remained negative since late April, indicating that U.S.-based spot demand has not participated in the recent ETH bounce toward $1,800. A persistently negative premium alongside rising exchange inflows points to distribution rather than accumulation among domestic institutional and retail flows tracked through Coinbase.

Glassnode’s holder accumulation ratio, which measures the share of active addresses increasing their ETH holdings versus those reducing them, has been trending lower since May. A falling ratio typically coincides with periods of profit-taking and distribution, and the current reading suggests that trend has not yet reversed despite the week’s price gain.

What the data implies for positioning

Taken together, the metrics — positive exchange net position change, a 67% drawdown in open interest, a negative Coinbase premium since April, and a declining accumulation ratio since May — paint a picture of a market where short covering, not new capital, is driving price action. Traders watching for confirmation of a durable reversal will likely need to see the exchange net position change flip back negative and the Coinbase premium turn positive before treating the bounce above $1,800 as more than a technical relief move.

Read more: BTC Liquidations Hit $410M, Longs Take 63% of Losses as Dominance Climbs to 58.07%