CryptoQuant: Whales Bought XRP Below $0.75 Cost Basis as Death Cross Persists
On-chain data shows large XRP, BTC and ETH cohorts adding supply near cycle lows even as XRP's daily chart stays capped by a death cross.
Large holders of XRP, Bitcoin and Ethereum are quietly adding to their positions even as price action across all three assets remains stuck below key moving averages, according to a weekly research note from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. The firm’s head of research, Julio Moreno, said the largest wallet cohorts in these assets are accumulating supply while spot prices sit near or below their average purchase cost — a setup CryptoQuant links to the late stages of a bear-market cycle.
For XRP, the data shows a specific and quantifiable gap. CryptoQuant’s realized price metric for XRP — effectively the average on-chain cost basis of the network’s coins — sits near $0.75, while the token’s market price has been trading around $1.10 and was last quoted near $1.04, down 2.4% on the day. That roughly 40% spread between realized and market price is the kind of divergence CryptoQuant characterizes as typical of a cycle’s terminal decline phase rather than an early markdown.
Whale order flow turns absorptive
CryptoQuant’s order-flow data shows XRP’s largest spot cohorts have kept order sizes in the “big whale” bracket while price has consolidated in a $1.00–$1.20 range, with neutral net flow suggesting absorption rather than distribution. In plain terms, sellers are not overwhelming buyers at current levels, and large wallets appear to be the ones stepping in on dips rather than exiting.
“This positioning lowers downside pressure and is consistent with the final phase of the cycle’s decline,” Moreno wrote in the report.
That framing matters for traders parsing whether the current drawdown across majors is closer to exhaustion than continuation. Whale accumulation below realized price has historically preceded basing periods, though CryptoQuant’s own data does not claim a reversal is confirmed — only that positioning has shifted toward reduced downside risk.
Technical picture still bearish on the daily
The on-chain accumulation signal sits awkwardly against XRP’s technical setup. The daily chart remains below both its short- and long-term moving averages, with a death cross still in effect and trend strength described as weak. That combination — whales buying while momentum indicators stay negative — is the classic tension point between on-chain positioning and price-action technicals that traders watch for early cycle-bottom signals.
The same accumulation pattern CryptoQuant flagged for XRP was also observed in Bitcoin and Ethereum’s largest holder cohorts, suggesting the behavior is not isolated to one asset but reflects a broader repositioning among big wallets across the market’s most liquid tokens. Whether that translates into a durable floor will likely depend on whether spot demand can absorb supply fast enough to flip the death cross before further downside tests the $1.00 level for XRP specifically.
Read more: XRP Slips to $1.04 as Whale Accumulation Stalls, Down 65% From 2025 Peak