Coinbase Volumes Seen Falling 44% to $669B, Yet William Blair Keeps Outperform Into 2027
William Blair cuts COIN revenue and EBITDA estimates as trading volume forecasts drop toward $669B, but flags a 2027 rebound driven by whale flows.
William Blair has cut its 2026 revenue and EBITDA estimates for Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) while forecasting trading volumes will fall roughly 44% to around $669 billion, even as the Chicago-based bank keeps its “outperform” rating and points to a 2027 rebound in earnings.
The revised numbers, laid out in a research note from analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury, trim revenue projections by 12% and EBITDA projections by 13% for the year. Coinbase shares are down more than 30% since January, a decline the bank ties directly to the broader crypto downturn rather than exchange-specific weakness.
Volumes track Bitcoin’s drawdown
The projected drop in COIN’s trading volume mirrors moves in the underlying asset: Bitcoin has shed more than 20% since the start of the year and sits over 30% below its 2025 all-time high above $125,000. Because Coinbase stock trades as a leveraged proxy on crypto market activity, institutional deleveraging in Bitcoin has fed through directly into declining exchange volumes and, by extension, into William Blair’s lower fee-revenue base.
That correlation is the core thesis behind the estimate cuts: if spot and derivatives activity keeps compressing alongside Bitcoin, Coinbase’s near-term print will keep disappointing regardless of the exchange’s own execution.
Why William Blair still holds outperform
Despite the downward revisions, William Blair’s analysts argue the current sell-off is building a more favorable entry point for 2027, when they expect Coinbase earnings to recover alongside a broader crypto market bounce. The bank frames this cycle’s setup as structurally different from the 2022 downturn, citing sustained whale accumulation and the maturation of spot Bitcoin ETFs as channels that have already funneled billions in institutional capital into the asset class.
Retail participation is expected to contribute to any recovery but is not seen as the primary driver — the note points to whale-led positioning as the more likely catalyst for a rebound in exchange volumes and, in turn, Coinbase’s top line.
Base and derivatives as secondary catalysts
Beyond the spot-market recovery thesis, William Blair flags Coinbase’s Base layer-2 network as an additional growth lever, alongside an expanding derivatives book. Retail derivatives volume on the platform surpassed $200 million in the first quarter of the year, and the bank expects that segment to keep scaling over coming quarters even if spot volumes stay depressed.
Taken together, the note positions Coinbase’s current weakness as cyclical rather than structural: near-term estimate cuts reflect Bitcoin’s ongoing correction, while the outperform rating reflects a bet that institutional flows, ETF-driven demand and diversified revenue lines from Base and derivatives will lift the stock once broader crypto sentiment turns.
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