ADA +13.22% on van Rossem fork, but CMF at +0.03 shows volume without conviction

ADA is up 13.22% over the past 24 hours, with daily trading volume rising nearly 60% alongside the move. The spike lines up with the network’s van Rossem upgrade going live and a broader market bounce that put Bitcoin back above $62,000.

What van Rossem actually changes

Van Rossem is an intra-era upgrade rather than a full hard fork. It targets network performance and governance mechanics, and it adds new Plutus built-in functions for developers building on Cardano.

The upgrade timing gave ADA a clean short-term catalyst on top of the risk-on tailwind from BTC’s move above $62,000, but the two drivers are separate — the fork didn’t cause the broader market bid, it coincided with it.

Structure still favors sellers

ADA has been in a downtrend since September 2025. The $0.235 level held as support through April and May before breaking down, and a higher-timeframe support at $0.32 gave way in January 2026 — a break that flipped the broader swing structure bearish, where it has stayed since.

Mapping Fibonacci retracements onto ADA’s June leg from roughly $0.19 down to $0.138, the 78.6% level at $0.1789 has now been reclaimed to the upside in this rally. That reclaim does not flip the swing structure on its own — a daily close above $0.19 is the level needed to shift the trend read from bearish to bullish.

Momentum data is split

The Money Flow Index has recovered above 50, consistent with fresh buying interest entering the move. But the Chaikin Money Flow indicator is printing just +0.03 despite the surge in volume, a weak reading that suggests the bounce lacks sustained accumulation. CMF has largely stayed negative since March.

MFI has also pushed past 80, a zone that typically flags an overextended short-term move rather than the start of a new trend leg.

Levels to watch

The combination of an overbought MFI reading and a bearish higher-timeframe structure sets up a possible short entry for swing traders, with the thesis invalidated only on a four-hour close above $0.19. If rejection plays out from current levels, the next downside targets sit at $0.138 and $0.126.

The $0.178–$0.190 band is the zone to track over the coming sessions — a hold above it keeps the bullish reclaim narrative alive, while failure there puts the broader downtrend back in control.

Read more: ADA Short Sellers Lose $857K in a Day as Cardano Whale Holdings Hit Record High

Sources

• ambcrypto.com