BTC’s Moving Averages Split at $65K as 4-Year Cycle Flags 13-Week Countdown

Bitcoin is pinned between $61,300 and $64,700, with spot trading near $62,600-$62,900 according to TradingView data cited by Brave New Coin. The range has held for several sessions following a sharp sell-off, and market structure now hinges on whether daily closes break above $64,700 or slip below $61,300 — the two levels analysts are treating as the trigger points for the next directional move.

Short-term averages support, higher timeframes resist

TradingView’s aggregated technical summary currently reads Neutral, with a combined Sell 10 / Neutral 9 / Buy 7 split across oscillators and moving averages. The RSI-14 sits near 48 — dead center, signaling no dominant momentum — while the Stochastic %K near 72 and Stochastic RSI Fast near 78 point to building buy-side pressure without reaching overbought extremes.

The moving-average picture is split by timeframe. Short-term levels are acting as nearby support: EMA(10) at $62,422, SMA(10) at $62,135, EMA(20) at $62,552, and SMA(20) at $61,786. But medium- and long-term averages sit well above spot and are capping upside — EMA(30) and SMA(50) cluster between $63,400 and $65,600, while EMA(100), SMA(100), EMA(200) and SMA(200) stretch from roughly $69,000 to $75,000, underscoring how far price remains from reclaiming its higher-timeframe trend.

MACD(12,26) is still printing a negative reading but currently flashes a buy signal, a possible early bullish crossover. Momentum(10) and Bull Bear Power remain bearish, keeping the technical read mixed rather than conclusively turning.

$450M in shorts liquidated, $65K still the line

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades frames the current move as a “risk-off flush” that has left BTC consolidating between $61,300 and $64,700, arguing a daily close above the upper bound could spark a broader relief rally across crypto, while a close under $61,300 risks another leg down toward recent swing lows.

Analyst Marzell points to the $65,000-$65,700 zone as the decisive resistance band after BTC rebounded from liquidity near $57,800 on six consecutive green daily candles. Marzell flags roughly $450 million in short liquidations alongside a more dovish Federal Reserve backdrop as tailwinds, but calls market structure bearish until that resistance is reclaimed — with rejection setting up another liquidity sweep.

4-year cycle model: 13 weeks to a possible bottom

A widely followed four-year cycle model from TradingShot suggests Bitcoin may be entering what its creator terms the “Final Flush” phase, placing a potential bear-cycle bottom roughly 13 weeks out. The framework references prior cycle-ending drawdowns of -59.8% in 2014, -52.2% in 2018 and -29.2% in 2022 — a pattern of progressively shallower final declines.

Applying a 2022-magnitude decline to Bitcoin’s recent high would imply a downside target near $45,800, close to the 1-week MA350. The model’s author identifies the $45,000-$50,000 band as a potential dollar-cost-averaging zone rather than a firm forecast, consistent with the broader mixed technical setup: momentum has stabilized short-term, but higher-timeframe averages and cycle-based models both flag the $65,000 level as the threshold that determines whether the current range resolves into recovery or a deeper flush.