BTC Profit-Loss Ratio Hits 43-Month Low as Fed Cut Odds Slip to 54%

Bitcoin reclaimed $61,000 on Thursday after a weaker-than-expected US jobs report pushed rate-cut odds lower and drove a rotation out of overheated AI equities. The move puts BTC roughly $20,000 above its June low of $57,750, and on-chain data now shows the realized profit-to-loss ratio at its lowest reading since 2022, a level analysts have historically tied to cycle bottoms.

Payrolls miss resets rate-cut pricing

US non-farm payrolls rose by just 57,000 in June against a 113,000 consensus, according to Yahoo Finance, with the Labor Department also revising April and May figures down by a combined 74,000 jobs. The CME FedWatch Tool showed odds of a September Federal Reserve rate cut falling to 54% from 64% a day earlier, a shift traders read as confirmation that the labor market is deteriorating faster than the Fed’s own projections.

The Nasdaq 100 erased three consecutive days of gains on the print, while chipmakers bore the brunt of the selloff. Shares of SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital and Applied Materials each fell 9% or more intraday, a move consistent with capital exiting AI-linked equities in search of alternative stores of value.

Gold clawed back part of an 8% two-week drawdown on the same day, and crude WTI stabilized below $70 after Qatar’s Foreign Ministry cited “positive progress” in US-Iran talks. The Fed’s balance sheet has stagnated at $6.73 trillion despite a mandate allowing $40 billion in monthly Treasury and bond purchases, leaving room for renewed liquidity expansion that traders view as a tailwind for scarce assets including BTC and gold.

On-chain metrics point to seller exhaustion

CryptoQuant contributor gaah_im flagged that Bitcoin’s realized profit-to-loss ratio has dropped to its lowest level since 2022, with the net percentage of supply in profit turning negative. The analyst noted this metric has historically marked cycle bottoms “with extreme precision,” a signal the market is now testing roughly two months after BTC was rejected at $82,500.

Part of Bitcoin’s recent weakness has been attributed to sentiment around Strategy, which reported 8% net leverage and $56.8 billion in enterprise value. Holders have faced dilution from accelerated MSTR share issuance used to fund debt buybacks and preferred-stock dividends, a structural overhang that traders are weighing against the broader macro setup.

Path back to $70,000 hinges on rotation flows

The combination of falling rate-hike expectations, an AI-sector drawdown and negative net supply-in-profit readings has traders framing $70,000 as the next test if capital continues rotating out of tech and into BTC and gold. Confirmation would likely require sustained Nasdaq weakness alongside a reversal in the profit-to-loss ratio back toward positive territory.

Read more: BTC UTXO Ratio Fires First Buy Signal Since Nov 2022, Loss Supply Still Lags