BTC UTXO ratio flashes first buy signal since 2022 as miner outflows and negative stablecoin netflows diverge
Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio turns positive for the first time since Nov 2022 even as miners keep selling and Binance netflows stay negative.
Bitcoin’s Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio has printed a positive reading for the first time since November 2022 — the same signal that preceded the last cycle bottom. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. flagged the crossover, with the metric climbing out of deeply negative territory into the on-chart green “BUY” zone that tracks the net balance of coins held in profit versus loss.
Confirmation isn’t in yet. Adler’s own framework requires the ratio to hold above zero while spot price continues to grind higher over subsequent weeks; absent that follow-through, the reading stays provisional rather than a validated reversal marker.
Miner supply keeps hitting the market
Public miners — Riot Platforms, Mara Holdings and Hut 8 Mining Corp among them — remain net sellers of BTC. Analyst Crypto Onchain attributes the pattern to rising operational costs rather than accumulation, pointing to a sharp uptick in miner outflows on CryptoQuant data.
On the exchange side, Binance stablecoin netflows have averaged -$126 million per day, even with funding rates staying positive. Read together, that combination is spot supply leaving legacy holders while smaller accounts add leveraged longs — a setup more typically tied to larger players trimming exposure while retail chases price.
ETF bid breaks a two-week bleed
Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $223.5 million in net inflows on July 2, per Farside Investors data, snapping nearly two weeks of straight daily outflows. The inflow lined up with BTC reclaiming $62,000 and posting a 2.56% intraday gain, with $64,000 now the level traders are watching as next resistance.
Macro conditions added tailwind: softer-than-expected US jobs data pushed up Fed rate-cut expectations, feeding directly into the short-term bounce across risk assets, crypto included.
What the split signal means for positioning
Historically, distribution from legacy holders paired with retail-driven leverage build has preceded drawdowns and long squeezes more often than it has led sustained rallies. That leaves the UTXO buy signal pointing one way and the miner-outflow/stablecoin-netflow data pointing the other, for now.
A decisive break above $64,000 alongside a slowdown in miner outflows would be the confirmation traders are likely watching for before treating the UTXO reading as validated rather than positioning off the ratio in isolation.
Read more: XRP Flashes Rare SuperTrend Buy Signal as MVRV Hits Record Lows