BTC Stalls at $63K as Shorts Get Squeezed But Cost-Basis Walls Loom Overhead
$143M in short liquidations this month, LTH-MVRV at 1.26, yet exchange inflows and ETF outflows keep the reversal thesis unconfirmed.
Bitcoin ran at $63,000 on Friday, July 3, and stalled there, extending a bounce that started near $58,500 at the beginning of the month. The move has already cost overleveraged shorts $143 million in liquidations so far in July, a squeeze large enough to raise the question of whether this is the start of a real reversal or simply positioning getting flushed out.
Structure still bearish on the 4H
Price action on the four-hour chart remains bearish despite the liquidation wave, based on TradingView data. Fibonacci retracement levels point to a potential extension toward $65,200 if momentum holds, but the underlying structure hasn’t flipped constructive yet.
Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution shows where the next resistance clusters sit: $64,000 and $67,000 mark the nearest zones of heavy BTC accumulation, with additional overhead supply stacked at $72,300 and $77,200. Any rally into those bands risks triggering breakeven selling from holders who bought there and have been underwater, which would cap upside momentum.
Long-term holders still in the green
The long-term holder MVRV ratio — current price against the average cost basis of coins held 155+ days — currently reads 1.26 on Glassnode data. That’s notable because every prior Bitcoin cycle has seen this metric dip below 1 at some point, marking long-term holders collectively underwater. That breach hasn’t happened in 2026, meaning this cohort remains broadly profitable through the recent volatility.
Exchange inflows and soft demand signals
CryptoQuant data flagged by XWIN Japan shows a sharp jump in BTC deposits to exchanges toward the end of June, a pattern mirrored in ETH and across altcoins — a sign of broad market-wide capital movement rather than isolated flows in one asset.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw heavy outflows during the pullback, which some read as weak-hand capitulation rather than a bearish signal. But apparent demand has also weakened, and the Coinbase Premium Index has turned negative — both pointing to thin buying pressure beneath the bounce.
Taken together — squeezed shorts, a still-profitable long-term cohort, but rising exchange supply and soft spot demand — the setup looks primed for a decisive move without a clear directional bias yet. The overhead cost-basis clusters at $64K–$77.2K remain the levels to watch for confirmation either way.