Bitcoin Exchange Netflow Flips Negative as $450M Shorts Get Squeezed at $62K

Bitcoin exchange netflow has flipped from a surplus of 2,724 BTC to a deficit of 907 BTC, a shift that on-chain analysts read as easing spot-selling pressure just as BTC bounced 1.20% to $61,987. The move coincides with the first net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in more than ten days — $221.7 million — and a derivatives-led squeeze that liquidated roughly $450 million in short positions, according to market analysis from Alphractal founder Joao Wedson cited by ZyCrypto.

The netflow reversal is the headline data point for traders: outflows from exchanges typically signal reduced immediate sell-side liquidity, and a swing from +2,724 BTC to -907 BTC over a short window is a meaningful directional change in custody behavior rather than noise.

Open interest climbs, but leverage stays contained

Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has risen approximately 4.75% to $21.58 billion, but Wedson’s framework flags leverage as remaining within manageable bounds rather than pushing into historically overheated territory. That distinction matters for positioning: rising OI without excessive leverage suggests fresh directional bets rather than a crowded, liquidation-prone setup.

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio sits at 1.129, a level Wedson characterizes as showing relatively low valuation pressure — implying the asset is not yet overextended relative to the cost basis of coins on-chain. Combined with the netflow deficit, the on-chain picture points to a market absorbing sell pressure rather than accelerating it.

The “final selling phase” thesis

Wedson’s model describes Bitcoin as entering the closing stages of its recent downtrend, structured as a “final selling phase”: a preliminary support stage where volume swells and price spreads widen, followed by a selling climax. In that climax, panic selling from retail traders is typically absorbed by institutional buyers, often closing sessions well above intraday lows and trapping late short sellers.

Following that stage, the framework anticipates a multi-month accumulation period, with Wedson pointing to a potential price bottom crystallizing within the next 90 days. The $450 million in short liquidations and the ETF inflow reversal are cited as early evidence consistent with that climax-and-absorption pattern.

Levels traders are watching

$60,000 is framed as the key support line. A successful defense could open a test of resistance between $62,000 and $62,523 — a band Bitcoin is currently pressing against near its $61,987 print. A failure to hold $60,000 risks a retest of the $58,000 annual low, a scenario analysts flag as more likely around the U.S. Independence Day holiday, when thinner liquidity tends to amplify moves in either direction.

Cooling U.S. labor market data also contributed to the bounce by easing concerns over further Federal Reserve rate hikes, adding a macro tailwind to the combination of ETF inflows and the derivatives squeeze.

Read more: Prediction Markets Price Bitcoin’s Odds of $100K in 2026 at Just 17%