Bitcoin Clears $64K on Cooler CPI, But Death Cross and $220M Shorts Cap Upside
BTC broke $64K resistance as June CPI cooled to 3.5%, but a technical death cross and Myriad odds still favor a drop to $55K first.
Bitcoin punched through $64,000 resistance on Tuesday after a softer-than-expected US inflation print, with prices oscillating between roughly $64,858 and $65,157 across trading desks in the following session. The move came alongside more than $220 million in 24-hour crypto short liquidations, per CoinGlass data, as traders caught leaning short were forced to cover into the rally.
The catalyst was macro, not on-chain. The June Consumer Price Index came in at 3.5% year-over-year versus a 3.8% forecast, marking the largest monthly decline in the index since April 2020, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. A separate Producer Price Index reading showed prices falling 0.3% on the month, driven largely by a collapse in gasoline costs, even as the ongoing US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption kept energy markets on edge.
Rate-cut repricing lifts risk assets
“The index for energy fell 5.7 percent in June after rising 3.9 percent in May, 3.8 percent in April, and 10.9 percent in March,” the BLS said in its release, noting the energy component drove the broader all-items decrease and offset gains in shelter and food.
Equities moved in sympathy, with the S&P 500 up 0.39% and the Nasdaq gaining 0.67% on the day. Rate-hike pricing on CME’s FedWatch tool eased as well, though sources diverge on the exact read: one outlet cited near-term hike odds falling from 31% to 12.3% week-over-week, while another noted the tool still assigned consensus to a 0.25% hike at the Fed’s September meeting. Either way, the directional signal was dovish enough for economist Mohamed El-Erian to write on X that “this print should help temper what had become an excessively hawkish market tilt to the monetary policy outlook.”
Resistance holds the line above $64K
Despite the squeeze, traders framed the move as a range test rather than a breakout confirmation. Analyst account Exitpump described the price action on X: “Sellers haven’t been able to push price lower because of strong passive demand and now seeing shorts closing out slowly forcing price to grind up. Still a range trading environment.”
Trader Killa flagged the same liquidity pocket sitting above $64,800 as the level to watch: “There’s still a liquidity pool sitting above 64.8K, but right now we’re testing the weekly open. If we can’t reclaim and hold the weekly open, this is likely just a lower high before we move down to test the $60K region.”
Death cross and prediction markets flag downside
Technical structure remains a headwind. Chart data shows Bitcoin sitting roughly 5% above the channel that, if breached to the downside, would confirm a bearish death cross and drag the asset into a formal downtrend. That gap keeps the macro trend bias tilted negative even as spot price grinds against the $64,000-$65,000 band.
On-chain prediction market Myriad reflects that skepticism directly: traders there are pricing 66.6% odds that Bitcoin trades down to $55,000 before it revisits $84,000, effectively betting the current resistance break fails to hold. The setup leaves BTC caught between a CPI-driven demand impulse and a technical structure that still favors sellers on any failure to reclaim the weekly open.
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